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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It commonly functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or merely the greatest surprise.

Yet the latest competition is profoundly different. The group of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime also-rans rising together. In an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a chaotic and fun season, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. However he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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